Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-11-08 Origin: Site
In the third race for the White House, Trump and his Republican Party won by a large margin.
According to the Associated Press, as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, Trump had received 277 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win the election, and Harris won 224 electoral votes. In addition to winning more than half of the electoral vote, Trump won more popular votes, which was far better than in the previous two elections.
In the seven key swing states, Trump secured early victories in North Carolina and Georgia, and then the most critical state of Pennsylvania, plus Wisconsin, completely ending the possibility of a victory for Democratic opponent Harris.
At the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida that day, Trump addressed supporters. The moment, he said, would "help this country heal." He also promised voters, "I will fight every day for you, for your families, and for your future." I will fight for you with all my might. I will not rest until we bring power, security, and prosperity to America, which is the true golden age of America. ”
Billionaire Elon Musk, his hardest ally in this election, has been with Trump on election night and congratulated, "Tonight, the American people gave Trump a clear mandate to bring about change." ”
The victory was historic for Republicans. In addition to Trump, the first president in more than 130 years to return to the White House after stepping down four years ago, Republicans have regained control of the Senate, winning at least 52 seats; If they can maintain their advantage in the House of Representatives, they will take full control of Washington. In the local elections in 50 states, 27 governorships were also pocketed by the Republicans.
For Democrats, the election was a complete setback, with control likely to be handed over from the White House to Capitol Hill. They have to admit that Harris is in many ways inferior to Biden's performance four years ago.
Why is it that after losing an election, Trump can still make a comeback, even if he is charged with serious crimes, and can he regain the favor of voters? The answer to this question lies not only with Trump, but also with the Democrats themselves.
In Manhattan, New York, the New York State Republican Committee's victory dinner was prepared. Although Trump did not win in New York State, he regained the presidency and encouraged local Republicans.
Deng Long, co-chairman of the New York State Republican Finance Committee, cast his ballot on Election Day, and in the evening, he waited with many Republican colleagues for the live broadcast of Fox News' vote count. In a previous interview (click to read the original article to jump), Deng Long predicted that Trump would definitely win, and at the beginning of the vote count, Trump quickly won the electoral votes in many red states, leading all the way, making them feel that the momentum was good.
Deng Long told Phoenix that Edward Cox, chairman of the New York State Republican Party Committee, and the state's congressional candidates all came to the dinner and spoke, "and then Trump will come back to New York to celebrate with us again, this is his hometown after all." Deng Long also invited a number of local Chinese who helped the Republicans fight the "ground war" to "gather together to celebrate," and the atmosphere of the victory that night was so strong that he did not return to his home on Long Island until 3 a.m. the next morning.
From time to time, they switched to liberal media channels as they watched Fox TV's vote counts, "and Fox was more cautious when they found that some of these stations announced Republican victories earlier." Deng Long said.
In the coming months, Mr. Deng will work with his colleagues to prepare for Trump's inauguration, and he will also be there and invite those who contributed to Trump's campaign to Washington. The market reacted to Trump's victory a little earlier than the media predicted. Not long after the invoicing took place, the dollar index soared by nearly 1.5%, and bitcoin jumped by more than 5%, jumping to a new all-time high, as Trump was more pro-crypto than Harris.
Judging by the other campaigns, the Republican victory was also overwhelming. The outside world has long expected the turnaround of the Senate. Republican candidate Jim Justis was able to fill the seat as Senator Joe Manchin from the West Virginia Independence Party was vacated, and a Senate seat from Ohio was taken by Republicans.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives with a narrow victory, and although it is not clear which side will win more than half of the seats, the Republicans are expected to consolidate their advantage. They have lost two seats so far, but have managed to "turn red" five seats for the Democratic Party.
The night was even more significant for Trump. Since announcing his candidacy, his campaign has been both smooth and bumpy. Since the party's primaries, he has not faced any substantive challenges, and even after multiple lawsuits and even convictions, he has never shaken his position in the Republican Party.
But many of the developments were clearly unexpected, such as the imminent change of opponents that caught Republicans off guard, and the shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania put Trump in the shadow of death. The assassination made him very depressed for a while, and Vanity Fair magazine described him at the time as "in a spiral of self-destruction".
Trump's eventual victory in the election is undoubtedly historic. Only Grover Cleveland has won two elections without re-election (in 1884 and 1892). The victory was also historic from other perspectives, such as the fact that he was the first presidential candidate to be convicted and won, or the only former president to be impeached twice.
For Trump, 78, his political life has been extended again. Although he had never held public office before 2016, the transition from businessman to president came unexpectedly. And in just four years in office, Trump has reshaped the Republican Party to a considerable extent, deeply rooting the so-called "Trumpism" in it. Today, the party has transformed into a MAGA party.
In his last term, Trump had a strong personal style in governance. How he will transform the United States in the future, and thus affect the world, has already been revealed in his election platform. However, whether in domestic policy or foreign affairs, he is likely to adhere to unilateralism, trade protectionism, right-wing populism and other ideas.
Thus, for Trump's supporters, this second term is a hope for rebuilding America, and for his opponents, it is yet another American depravity. Although he made a rare claim in a speech to heal the country, tearing would be inevitable.
Al Jazeera's senior political analyst Marwan Bishara believes that once Trump comes to power again, it will trigger an "earthquake" in the United States and domestic politics. "We're talking about an American president whose party controls the Senate and whose judges are on the Supreme Court. This man will be able to do things that most presidents have not been able to imagine since World War II. ”
Trump's re-election certainly reflects voters' approval of him, but the bigger reason may be due to the unpopularity of the Democratic Party. After all, in terms of campaign input, the Republican Party is far inferior to its opponents.
On the one hand, the Republican Party's campaign funding is not as abundant. As of early November, Harris's campaign has spent more than $800 million since she joined the campaign, not counting external spending from super PACs and other groups. That's more than double the Trump campaign's total spending, which totaled less than $360 million.
On the other hand, the Republican Party also has less power to canvass votes at the grassroots level. More than 90,000 volunteers from the Harris campaign helped canvass for votes in the weekend before the election, knocking on more than 3 million doors in swing states, according to data. Mr. Trump's team is much leaner, and they have even outsourced some of their canvassing activities, leaving Mr. Trump to rely on high-profile campaigns to woo voters.
Even so, the Democrats have not been able to reach enough voters, which means a more stark reality – without money and massive manpower, they will only lose even more.
Heading into the countdown, Harris has also changed tactics to focus on committing to solving problems and seeking consensus, rather than criticizing opponents. There is an argument that this is a more appropriate way to tell voters why they voted for her, and that the reason does not have to be to oppose Trump.
It's hard to say whether appealing to fear of Trump is an effective canvassing strategy, but the election results show that Harris isn't convincing enough to convince voters to approve of herself.
Compared to Trump, Harris does not have an "incumbent advantage". Although she served as vice president for four years, she is not a real decision-maker after all, and it is difficult for her own political achievements to compete with Trump. Many have pointed out that she has never been able to come up with a clear agenda or push for transformative policies, but has only tried to make it effortlessly to the White House with the slogan "End the strife."
What's more, dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration has largely eroded the will of voters, especially on the key issue of inflation, and the Democratic administration has failed to gain voter approval. Most believe that the Republican Party is better at managing the economy than its opponents.
In an October New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Joe Biden's performance, and only 28 percent said the country was heading in the right direction. And a whopping 75% of voters believe the economy is not in good shape. Almost everywhere, high prices and the aftermath of the pandemic have left voters feeling resentful.
There was severe inflation during Biden's presidency, but now the situation is under control to a certain extent, the overall data has improved, and the unemployment rate has repeatedly hit new lows. But beyond the abstract data, voters have not felt the economic improvement. This has destroyed trust in the government, liberal elites, and even the traditional media. Young and low-income voters are generally dissatisfied, with less savings, purchasing power, housing opportunities, and hope.
According to an Edison export poll, about 31 percent of voters said the economy was their top concern, with 79 percent voting for Trump and 20 percent voting for Harris. About 45 percent of voters across the country believe their families are in worse financial shape today than they were four years ago, with 80 percent of these people supporting Trump and 17 percent of Harris.
In addition, the Democrats have not solved the border problem well, and the large number of immigrants has not only put enormous pressure on the border, but also caused a massive flow to other cities, providing adversaries with material for attack.
So it's understandable that voters will blame the current government's misgovernance, with which Harris, as vice president, cannot be dissociated.
In a previous interview with Phoenix Weekly, Diao Daming, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of Chinese, commented, "Although Trump is very extreme, he is making a fuss in the sense of economy and class, hoping to respond to the urgent problems that have arisen in the United States in the context of economic globalization in the past period, while many of the policies of the Democratic Party are still using demographic changes to win more votes." ”
Judging by the voter turnout, many Democratic supporters have shifted, such as young people and minorities. Preliminary findings from the Associated Press, based on its VoteCast, show that Trump's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds rose from 36 percent in 2020 to 44 percent this year.
To add insult to embarrassment to Democrats, Trump's approval rating among African-American voters has risen to 15 percent, up from 8 percent four years ago. This support is especially pronounced among men of African descent. In addition, among Latinos, Trump's approval rating rose to 40% from 35% in 2020. Compared to when Biden ran four years ago, the percentage of minority voters who supported Harris has decreased.
In Diao's view, many of the issues that the Democratic Party is concerned about are playing the identity card, in other words, to the point where a candidate must be non-white to be attractive to voters. He believes that if the Democratic Party becomes a non-white party in both the ideological and group sense, it may not be a good choice for its political ecology and future development.
Judging from the post-election data, playing the identity card has not been able to gather votes from ethnic minorities. For example, the rise in African-American support for Trump suggests that Harris's proposed policies are still failing to impress them.
Diao mentioned that many African-American voters believe that although the Democratic Party has provided them with some favorable policies, it has not been able to bring about class change, and only called on the group to come out and vote during the election period. "Some of the welfare policies that Harris is proposing now can buy people's hearts and minds in the short term, but in the long run, they will increase the government's financial burden, leading to higher debt, and taxes will not increase, which means that the level of inflation will not fall, and it will not solve the problem in essence."
Mr. Trump's two victories, each by a female candidate, seem to indicate that more voters are less inclined to have a woman in the White House. Even so, it is difficult to say that gender is a key factor in influencing elections.
The New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump leads Harris among men by 55 percent to 41 percent. "Trump's hubris, unbridled style and commitment to economic prosperity resonate especially with African-American and Latino men," the survey said. ”
In addition, Harris has failed to attract Arab voters. Congressman Mustafa Hammoud, from Dearborn, Michigan, said the Democratic candidate could not blame anyone but herself for the results.
Hammoud told Al Jazeera, "At least the Biden team used to come here and listen to us." I think the Harris campaign has been a complete failure in terms of engagement with the Arab American community. In addition to her strong support for Israel, Harris has embraced hawks like former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter Liz Cheney, further alienating Arab voters, he added.
Kellyanne Conway, who served as a senior adviser to the president during the Trump administration, slammed Democrats for their excessive focus on reproductive rights on a Fox News show. "Harris only likes to talk to us from the waist down, and Trump is willing to talk to us from the waist up." Conway said.
Conway argues that Harris's focus only on abortion is actually "insulting" women. "I mean, you've got to talk to that woman in full. It's as if she doesn't know anything about the economy, or she doesn't care about what's happening in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran, or she simply can't count her bills. ”
Some analysts believe that the performance of the American media has been worse, and they have mistaken their favorability of a "weak liberal" for a nationwide enthusiasm, thereby overpromoting Harris and contributing to her defeat.
Trump's campaign, by contrast, has been modest. While there have been some eye-catching remarks, such as illegal immigrants "eating pets" and self-destructive blunders such as never setting foot in Puerto Rico again, he has generally revolved around the theme of Democratic Party mistakes and making America great again, and it is relatively easy to get to the heart of voters.
Harris did not get as many votes as expected, and there is an argument that the polls are partly to blame. Rick Persstein, a columnist and historian at The American Outlook, argues that the current polls are not reliable enough and that they are often based on shaky models, but that "people in Democratic circles are very confident that Harris will outperform the polls."
Persstein mentioned that Democrats mistakenly believe that women who originally supported the Republican Party would be influenced by the abortion issue and turn to the Democratic Party. "Even though the number of women voting for Harris has increased, young male voters are evenly matched, and they find Trump's rudeness appealing, and now there are large numbers supporting him."
Judging by the polls released by the states, there are indeed mistakes. Two days before the election, Trump's approval rating in the Iowa polls was outscored by Harris by 3 percentage points, even though Trump had won the state twice in a row.
This data comes from J. Serzer, a well-respected pollster in Iowa. Ann Selzer), whose team has accurately predicted the outcome of the state's elections on several occasions. This reversal was not only abrupt, but also very different from another poll of the same period. The final election results showed that Iowa was still firmly won by Trump. For Selzer, his credibility will undoubtedly take a heavy hit.
In this election, the seven swing states with 93 electoral votes set off a red wave. So far, Trump has won four of the seven swing states and holds the lead in the other three.
In the early morning of November 6, local time, Trump won in Pennsylvania, receiving 19 electoral votes in the state. He sealed the win, just three votes shy of the 270 votes needed to win.
Pennsylvania is Trump's third swing state and second since 2016, when Biden turned the state blue. The state is the top priority on the road to the White House, where the two candidates have invested heavily, spending more than $500 million on advertising alone, visiting the state more than 100 times during the campaign, and Harris staying in the state all day before the election. And in July, Trump escaped a shooting at Butler in the state.
The Trump team's campaign strategy has focused on boosting turnout in rural and Rust Belt areas of the state, which are traditional Republican strongholds. This is similar to his winning strategy in 2016, when he won by winning the support of white, working-class voters and weakening the Democratic Party's advantage in union households.
Trump's victory is evident across the state. In Pennsylvania's most densely populated suburb of Philadelphia, Mr. Trump's victory in Bacchus County and neighboring Northumbton County, both of which are seen as election bellwetches that were taken by Biden four years ago. Trump is also a few percentage points better in Chester and Delaware counties in Philadelphia than he was four years ago. He also won in the northwestern city of Erie, where Biden narrowly won four years ago. Even in Philadelphia, the stronghold of the Democratic Party, Trump's approval rating is 3 percent higher than it was four years ago.
In addition, both campaigns have a special focus on the state's growing Latino population. An estimated 580,000 Latino voters in Pennsylvania are eligible to vote this year, nearly 6 percent of the total population.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes) was the first swing state Trump won in a general election. It was once considered a red state, with Republicans winning 10 times in 11 general elections from 1980 to 2020. However, the difference between the two parties' support in the state has been less than 4 percent in the last three elections, and only 1 percent in 2020.
At 11:18 p.m. on Nov. 5, unofficial news from the state's election commission came out one after another, and Trump finally won by more than 3%.
"Tonight, that's history." Ray Goeckerman, a 62-year-old voter from Wake County, North Carolina, said economic and border issues motivated him to support Trump, "I don't know if we're going to have a candidate like Trump again in our lifetime." It's an honor to be a part of it. ”
Charles Swanson, 60, told a Republican victory party: "North Carolinians, like most Americans, are fed up with the Biden administration's nonsense. Swanson said he opposes the Biden administration's policies on abortion and LGBTQ people, saying, "I think Trump is the one who can provide a common-sense solution." People are suffering and want to be financially successful. It takes common-sense thinking to achieve this. ”
Karin Mulligan, the Republican chairwoman of Wake County, said the current administration had allowed people to "worsen their quality of life," which, combined with the impact of previous hurricanes, allowed Trump to win in the state. In September this year, Hurricane Helenie wreaked havoc in the state, causing discontent among many people in the state.
The Associated Press noted that more Republican voters in North Carolina voted than they did four years ago, while Democratic turnout declined, two factors that combined to push Trump to defeat Harris and give Republicans a win back in the swing state.
Georgia (16 electoral votes) used to be the same Republican state, but in 2020 it was "turned blue" by Biden, and this time it was once again bagged by Trump, and the difference in votes between the two candidates was 126939 votes.
The victory would re-establish Republican dominance in the state. After losing the state in 2020, Trump had aggressively expressed his displeasure with the election results. He claimed that the election results in Georgia were fraudulent and pressured the state's two Republican leaders at the time to "recover" the votes they didn't win. In 2023, Trump was also indicted for trying to overturn the state's election results.
In this election, the Democratic Party has made significant progress around Atlanta, Georgia's largest city, such as Henry County in southeast Atlanta, where Harris's approval rating is 9% higher than Biden's 2020 vote rate, but the new advantage still cannot outweigh the Republicans, who are also making progress in the Democratic enclave around the state's major cities such as Macon, Augusta and Savannah. Trump's vote also rose slightly in some areas of Atlanta, including DeKalb and Fulton counties.
Xia Yingying, a Chinese student studying at Emory University in Atlanta (on condition of anonymity), told Phoenix Weekly that she felt "broken" and even a little desperate after seeing Trump win. "I originally planned to stay and look for a job after graduation, but I am afraid that it will be difficult after Trump takes office, and I guess I won't be able to get a job visa. For the locals, abortion rights may become an issue, and national sentiment may be more serious, and I am more worried that anti-Chinese sentiment will rise in the local area. ”
In Wisconsin, once a "blue-walled state," Trump also defeated Harris, which allowed him to further consolidate his victory. It is worth mentioning that Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate at the time, failed to win in the state in 2016, which is seen as the main reason for the defeat to Trump at that time.
Wisconsin, as a swing state in the heart of the Midwest and one of the three traditional "rust states," has symbolic significance. Both candidates invested heavily in the campaign and held large rallies in various suburbs and college towns across the state.
Trump's victory was aided by the support of the state's white voters, who do not have a college degree, a group that makes up the majority of the state's electorate, and the Democratic votes in Milwaukee and Madison are not enough to fill the void.
According to an analysis by the New York Times, Wisconsin's demographics show that there are more voters who tend to support Trump, and African-American and Latino voters who tend to support Harris make up only a small percentage of the state's electorate. In this campaign, Trump's promise to improve the economy and crack down on immigration has successfully attracted voters in the state.
As of press time, the results of the three remaining swing states – Michigan, Arizona and Nevada – have not yet been announced. (Interns Zhu Ruowan and Fang Chenyu also contributed to this article)
